A NOTE FROM SCOTT Labor Day weekend is upon us, which means that the race to the 98th Oscars on Sunday, March 15, 2026, is truly, if unofficially, on.
A host of highly-anticipated contenders will be unveiled over the next few days on the Lido and/or in the Rockies — among them Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, Jay Kelly, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Ballad of a Small Player, Bugonia, La Grazia and A House of Dynamite — with not just film makers and lovers, but also awards voters and journalists, on hand in large numbers.
As I personally see — or am released to acknowledge that I have seen — those contenders, I will relocate them from “Still to See/Under Embargo” groupings into “Frontrunners,” “Major Threats” or “Possibilities” — or, in cases where things really go badly, delete them altogether.
Only one thing is certain: next week’s forecast is going to look very different than this week’s. In the meantime, I hope you enjoy this snapshot of a moment in time.
Please remember: my forecasts do not necessarily reflect my personal preferences. My aim is not to advocate for what I think the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. I arrive at my projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.
Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy of Neon Frontrunners
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Sentimental Value (Neon)
Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
Train Dreams (Netflix)
It Was Just An Accident (Neon)
F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Materialists (A24)
Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Warfare (A24)
The Life of Chuck (Neon)Major Threats
Die My Love (Mubi)
The Secret Agent (Neon)
Highest 2 Lowest (A24)Possibilities
Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)
The History of Sound (Mubi)
Sound of Falling (Mubi)Still to See/Under Embargo
After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix)
Bugonia (Focus)
Caught Stealing (Sony)
Dead Man’s Wire (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Ella McCay (20th Century)
Eternity (A24)
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Hamnet (Focus)
Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
Jay Kelly (Netflix)
La Grazia (Mubi)
The Lost Bus (Apple)
Marty Supreme (A24)
The Mastermind (Mubi)
Mother Mary (A24)
No Other Choice (Neon)
Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Rental Family (Searchlight)
Roofman (Paramount)
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Song Sung Blue (Universal)
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (20th Century)
The Testament of Ann Lee (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Wicked: For Good (Universal)Best Director
Image Credit: Jean Louis Fernandez Frontrunners
Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (Neon)
Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — podcast
Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
Clint Bentley for Train Dreams (NetflixMajor Threats
Celine Song for Materialists (A24) — podcast
Lynne Ramsay for Die My Love (Mubi)
Joseph Kosinski for F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Zach Cregger for Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Alex Garland & Ray Mendoza for Warfare (A24)
Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent (Neon)Possibilities
Spike Lee for Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — podcast
Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby (A24)
Mike Flanagan for The Life of Chuck (Neon)
Óliver Laxe for Sirāt (Neon)
Bill Condon for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)
Oliver Hermanus for The History of Sound (Mubi)Still to See/Under Embargo
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Darren Aronofksy for Caught Stealing (Sony)
Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Edward Berger for Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix)
Kathryn Bigelow for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Craig Brewer for Song Sung Blue (Universal)
James L. Brooks for Ella McCay (20th Century)
James Cameron for Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Jon M. Chu for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
Derek Cianfrance for Roofman (Paramount)
Bradley Cooper for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Searchlight)
Nia DaCosta for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2
Mona Fastvold for The Testament of Ann Lee (still seeking U.S. distribution)
David Freyne for Eternity (A24)
Luca Guadagnino for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
Paul Greengrass for The Lost Bus (Apple) — podcast
Hikari for Rental Family (Searchlight)
Jim Jarmusch for Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Rian Johnson for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Story (Netflix)
Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia (Focus)
Oliver Laxe for Sirāt (Neon)
David Lowery for Mother Mary (A24)
Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice (Neon)
Kelly Reichardt for The Mastermind (Mubi)
Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine (A24)
Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24)
Mascha Schilinski for Sound of Falling (Mubi)
Paolo Sorrentino for La Grazia (Mubi) — podcast
Gus Van Sant for Dead Man’s Wire (still seeking U.S. distribution)
James Vanderbilt for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
Chloé Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)Best Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Neon BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Joel Egerton for Train Dreams (Netflix) — podcast
Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon)
Brad Pitt for F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Guillaume Marbeck for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)Major Threats
Denzel Washington for Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — podcast
Paul Mescal for The History of Sound (Mubi)
Vahid Mobasseri for It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
Sergi Lopez for Sirāt (Neon)Possibilities
Chris Evans for Materialists (A24) — podcast
Tonatiuh for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)
Tom Hiddleston for The Life of Chuck (Neon) — podcast
Josh Brolin for Weapons (Warner Bros.)Still to See/Under Embargo
Riz Ahmed for Hamlet (still seeking U.S. distribution) — podcast
Will Arnett for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
Austin Butler for Caught Stealing (Sony) — podcast
Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast
George Clooney for Jay Kelly (Netflix) — podcast
Daniel Craig for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — podcast
Daniel Day-Lewis for Anemone (Focus)
Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Idris Elba for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Colin Farrell for Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — podcast
Brendan Fraser for Rental Family (Searchlight) — podcast
Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — podcast
Dustin Hoffman for Tuner (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast
Hugh Jackman for Song Sung Blue (Universal) — podcast
Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine (A24)
Rami Malek for Nuremberg (Sony Classics) — podcast
Matthew McConaughey for The Lost Bus (Apple) — podcast
Paul Mescal for Hamnet (Focus)
Josh O’Connor for The Mastermind (Mubi)
Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast
Toni Servillo for La Grazia (Mubi)
Alexander Skarsgård for Pillion (A24) — podcast
Channing Tatum for Roofman (Paramount)
Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Searchlight)Best Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy of Mubi Frontrunners
Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value (Neon)
Jennifer Lawrence for Die My Love (Mubi) — podcast
Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
June Squibb for Eleanor the Great (Sony Classics)
Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby (A24)Major Threats
Lucy Liu for Rosemead (Vertical) — podcast
Felicity Jones for Train Dreams (Netflix)
Julia Garner for Weapons (Warner Bros.) — podcastPossibilities
Dakota Johnson for Materialists (A24) — podcast
Arienne Mandi for Tatami (Flawless)Still to See/Under Embargo
Cate Blanchett for Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (still seeking U.S. distribution) — podcast 1 and 2
Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)
Laura Dern for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good (Universal) — podcast
Emma Mackey for Ella McCay (20th Century)
Kate Hudson for Song Sung Blue (Universal) — podcast
Imogen Poots for The Chronology of Water (The Forge)
Julia Roberts for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast
Tessa Thompson for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)Best Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix Frontrunners
Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast
William H. Macy for Train Dreams (Netflix)
Aubry Dullin for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
Tonatiuh Elizarraraz for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside)
Pedro Pascal for Materialists (A24)Major Threats
Delroy Lindo for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Jack O’Connell for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Miles Caton for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Diego Luna for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — podcastPossibilities
Robert Pattinson for Die My Love (Mubi) — podcast
Josh O’Connor for The History of Sound (Mubi)
Mark Hamill for The Life of Chuck (Neon) — podcast
Damson Idris for F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)Still to See/Under Embargo
Jonathan Bailey for Wicked: For Good (Universal)
Gabriel Basso for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Tom Bateman for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Sean Bean for Anemone (Focus)
Samuel Bottomley for Anemone (Focus)
Josh Brolin for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Albert Brooks for Ella McCay (20th Century)
Bradley Cooper for Is This Thing On? (Searchlight)
Russell Crowe for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
Billy Crudup for Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Peter Dinklage for Roofman (Paramount)
Adam Driver for Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (still seeking U.S. distribution) — podcast
Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix)
Akira Emoto for Rental Family (Searchlight)
Andrew Garfield for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Stephen Graham for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Searchlight)
Stavros Halkias for Bugonia (Focus)
Woody Harrelson for Ella McCay (20th Century)
Takehiro Hira for Rental Family (Searchlight)
Tracy Letts for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Jack Lowden for Ella McCay (20th Century)
Josh O’Connor for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Sean Penn for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly (Netflix) — podcast
Liev Schreiber for Caught Stealing (Sony) — podcast
Andrew Scott for Blue Moon (Sony Classics)
Andrew Scott for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Michael Shannon for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
Matt Smith for Caught Stealing (Sony)
LaKeith Stanfield for Roofman (Paramount)
Jeremy Strong for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Searchlight) — podcast
Michael Stuhlbarg for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
Christoph Waltz for Frankenstein (Netflix)
Leo Woodall for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)Best Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Roadside Attractions/Everett Collection Frontrunners
Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — podcast
Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value (Neon) — podcast
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value (Neon)
Hailee Steinfeld for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Zoey Deutch for Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — podcastMajor Threats
Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Kerry Condon for Train Dreams (Netflix)Possibilities
Sissy Spacek for Die My Love (Mubi) — podcast
Zar Amir Ebrahimi for Tatami (Flawless)Still to See/Under Embargo
Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine (A24) — podcast
Glenn Close for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — podcast
Jamie Lee Curtis for Ella McCay (20th Century)
Laura Dern for Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Kirsten Dunst for Roofman (Paramount) — podcast
Ayo Edebiri for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
Rebecca Ferguson for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Mia Goth for Frankenstein (Netflix)
Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good (Universal) — podcast
Alana Haim for The Mastermind (Mubi)
Regina Hall for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Gaby Hoffmann for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Searchlight)
Nina Hoss for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Regina King for Caught Stealing (Sony)
Zoe Kravitz for Caught Stealing (Sony)
Vicky Krieps for Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Greta Lee for A House of Dynamite (Netflix)
Samantha Morton for Anemone (Focus)
Safia Oakley-Green for Anemone (Focus)
Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme (A24)
Imogen Poots for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Margaret Qualley for Blue Moon (Sony Classics)
Chloë Sevigny for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast
Tilda Swinton for Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — podcast
Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Juno Temple for Roofman (Paramount)
Kerry Washington for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — podcast
Emily Watson for Hamnet (Focus)
Sigourney Weaver for Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century)
Mari Yamamoto for Rental Family (Searchlight)Best Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Neon/Courtesy Everett Collection Frontrunners
Nouvelle Vague (Netflix) — Holly Gent, Michèle Halberstadt, Laetitia Masson & Vincent Palmo
Train Dreams (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
The Life of Chuck (Neon) — Mike Flanagan
Die My Love (Mubi) — Alice Birch, Lynne Ramsay & Enda Walsh
Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — Alan FoxMajor Threats
The History of Sound (Mubi) — Ben Shattuck
Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside) — Bill CondonStill to See/Under Embargo
Avatar: Fire and Ash (20th Century) — James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver
Ballad of a Small Player (Netflix) — Rowan Joffé
Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy
Caught Stealing (Sony) — Charlie Huston
Frankenstein (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro — podcast 1 and 2
Hamnet (Focus) — Chloé Zhao
Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Nia DaCosta
The Lost Bus (Apple) — Paul Greengrass & Brad Ingelsby — podcast (Greengrass)
Nuremberg (Sony Classics) — James Vanderbilt
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
Song Sung Blue (Universal) — Craig Brewer
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (Searchlight) — Scott Cooper
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — Rian Johnson
Wicked: For Good (Universal) — Dana Fox & Winnie HolzmanBest Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima/A24 Frontrunners
Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
Sentimental Value (Neon) — Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
It Was Just an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
Materialists (A24) — Celine Song
Sorry, Baby (A24) — Eva VictorMajor Threats
Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Zach Cregger
Warfare (A24) — Alex Garland & Ray Mendoza
The Secret Agent (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça Filho
Sirāt (Neon) — Santiago Fillol & Óliver Laxe
Left-Handed Girl (Netflix) — Sean Baker & Shih-Ching Tsou — podcast (Baker)Possibilities
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — Mary Bronstein
Eleanor the Great (Sony Classics) — Tory Kamen
The Phoenician Scheme (Focus) — Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola
F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Ehren KrugerStill to See/Under Embargo
After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — Nora Garrett
Anemone (Focus) — Daniel Day-Lewis & Ronan Day-Lewis
Ella McCay (20th Century) — James L. Brooks
Father, Mother, Sister, Brother (still seeking U.S. distribution) — Jim Jarmusch
A House of Dynamite (Netflix) — Noah Oppenheim
Is This Thing On? (Searchlight) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell & Bradley Cooper
Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer
Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
The Mastermind (Mubi) — Kelly Reichardt
Rental Family (Searchlight) — Stephen Blahut & Hikari
Roofman (Paramount) — Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn
The Smashing Machine (A24) — Benny SafdieBest International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Neon Frontrunners
Norway — Sentimental Value (Neon)
France — Nouvelle Vague (Netflix)
France — It Was Just an Accident (Neon)
Germany — Sound of Falling (Mubi)
Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)Major Threats
Spain — Sirāt (Neon)
Taiwan — Left-Handed Girl (Netflix)Still to See/Under Embargo
Chile — The Wave (still seeking U.S. distribution)
France — A Private Life (Sony Classics)
Italy — La Grazia (Mubi)
South Korea — No Other Choice (Neon)
Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (still seeking U.S. distribution)Best Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of PBS Frontrunners
Apocalypse in the Tropics (Netflix)
2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
My Mom Jayne (HBO)
The Alabama Solution (HBO)
The Perfect Neighbor (Netflix)Major Threats
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (Kino Lorber)
Come See Me in the Good Light (Apple)
Deaf President Now! (Apple)
Prime Minister (Magnolia)
Folktales (Magnolia)Possibilities
The Man Who Saves the World? (Area 23a)
Predators (MTV)
Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius) (Hulu)
Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)
Grand Theft Hamlet (Mubi)
Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass)Still to See/Under Embargo
Always (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Andre Is An Idiot (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Architecton (A24)
Art for Everybody (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Blknws: Terms & Conditions (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Coexistence, My Ass! (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Cover-Up (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Cutting Through Rocks (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Dating Game (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Ghost Elephants (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Heightened Security (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Holding Liat (still seeking U.S. distribution)
How to Build a Library (still seeking U.S. distribution)
It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley (Magnolia)
Karl (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Life After (POV)
Marc by Sofia (A24)
Move Ya Body (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Mr. Nobody Against Putin (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Remake (still seeking U.S. distribution)
A Savage Art: The Life & Cartoons of Pat Oliphant (Magnolia)
Seeds (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Shari & Lamb Chop (Kino Lorber)
The Six Billion Dollar Man (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Stiller & Meara: Nothing Is Lost (Apple)
Timestamp (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Zodiac Killer Project (Music Box)Best Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Neon Frontrunners
KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
Arco (Neon)
In Your Dreams (Netflix)
Elio (Disney/Pixar)
Fixed (Netflix)Still to See/Under Embargo
Animal Farm (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The Bad Guys 2 (Universal)
ChaO (GKIDS)
Dandelion’s Odyssey (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba (Sony)
Dog Man (Universal)
Hypergalactic (Charades)
The King of Kings (Angel)
The Legend of Hei 2 (GKIDS)
Lilo & Stitch (Disney)
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
Lost in Starlight (Netflix)
A Magnificent Life (Sony Classics)
Ne Zha 2 (A24)
Paddington in Peru (Sony)
Predator: Killer of Killers (Hulu)
Scarlet (Sony Classics)
Smurfs (Paramount)
Sneaks (Briarcliff)
Stitch Head (Briarcliff)
The Twits (Netflix)
Zootopia 2 (Disney)
