Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Dec. 18, 2025): This week’s Oscar shortlist announcements have crystallized what many suspected: Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners,” along with Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” and Netflix’s “Frankenstein” are the technical juggernauts to beat.
What’s particularly striking is the embrace of more international titles then we suspected — the inclusion of Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” and Spain’s “Sirât” in multiple technical categories signals that international cinema is competing for more spots other than “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value.”
The debut of casting and cinematography shortlists has already produced its first casualty: Searchlight’s “The Testament of Ann Lee” was conspicuously shut out in both categories, in addition to music, a major blow to the campaign. However, Amanda Seyfried is still in contention with Globes and CCA under her belt, but the overall package is suddenly looking vulnerable.
The holidays are next week, and voters are gathering their luggages, and heading off to be with families, along with their usernames and passwords for the Academy Screening Room to catch up on the latest movies.
As we barrel toward the January 22 nominations announcement — and with the news YouTube is set to take over the ceremony starting in 2029 — this season feels like both an ending and a beginning of the old guard fighting to maintain relevance while a more global, technically adventurous slate pushes the Academy toward its future.
The first charts for animated feature have also published, in addition to the first projections of the three shorts categories below.
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (13); “Sinners” (12); “Hamnet” (10); “Wicked: For Good” (9); “Sentimental Value” (7)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (33); Neon (22); Netflix (13); Focus Features (11); Universal Pictures (9); A24 (7)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Director
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Oliver Laxe
“Sirât” (Neon)
Jafar Panahi
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actor
Image Credit: ©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke ***
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
Image Credit: Giles Keyte/Universal Pictures Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Chase Infiniti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Benicio del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Andrew Scott
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Stellan Skarsgård ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Jafar Panahi
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan CooglerOscar category page with rankings>>>
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima/Focus Features “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) ***
Clint Bentley and Greg KwedarOscar category page with rankings>>>
Casting
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Gabriel Domingues
“Sirât” (Neon)
Nadia Acimi, Luis Bertolo and Erika Boulic
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Allison JonesOscar category page with rankings>>>
Animated Feature
Image Credit: ©Sony Pictures/Courtesy Everett “Arco” (Neon)
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Production Design
Image Credit: Agata Grzybowska “Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Nathan Crowley, Lee SandalesOscar category page with rankings>>>
Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Łukasz Żal
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Sirât” (Neon)
Mauro Herce
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho VelosoOscar category page with rankings>>>
Costume Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Colleen Atwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Film Editing
Image Credit: Neon “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Stephen Mirrione
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Amir Etminan
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andy Jurgensen
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. ShawverOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Marcel Zyskind “The Alto Knights” (Warner Bros.)
Lori Hicks, Richard Redlefsen
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Cliona Furey, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Felix Fox, Kazu Hiro, Mia Neal
“The Ugly Stepsister” (IFC)
Thomas Foldberg, Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Laura Blount, Mark Coulier, Frances HannonOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Sound
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Picture “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirât” (Neon)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Evere “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Tron: Ares” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Original Score
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson
“Sirāt” (Neon)
Kangding RayOscar category page with rankings>>>
Original Song
Image Credit: ©Apple TV/Courtesy Everett Coll “Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” by Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile and Andrea Gibson
“Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Dear Me” by Diane Warren
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen SchwartzOscar category page with rankings>>>
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Brittany Shyne “The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
Andrew Jarecki, Charlotte Kaufman, Page Marsella
“Cutting Through Rocks” (Autlook Films)
Mohammadreza Eyni, Sara Khaki
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
Sam Bisbeem Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne
“Seeds” (Interior Films)
Brittany Shyne, Sabrina Schmidt Gordon, Danielle Varga
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
Raney Aronson, Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle MiznerOscar category page with rankings>>>
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
dir. Jafar Panahi
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
dir. Joachim Trier
“Sirāt” from Spain (Neon)
dir. Oliver Laxe
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
dir. Kaouther Ben HaniaOscar category page with rankings>>>
Animated Short
“Cardboard” (Locksmith Animation)
“Éiru” (GKids) ***
“Hurikán” (AEON Production)
“The Night Boots” (Am Stram Gram)
“The Quinta’s Ghost” (Illusorium Films)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Documentary Short
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection “All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) ***
“All the Walls Came Down” (Interloper Films)
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films)
“Chasing Time” (Exposure Labs)
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
Live Action Short
Image Credit: The New Yorker “The Boy with White Skin” (Manifest)
“Extremist” (The New Yorker)
“Rock, Paper, Scissors” (National Film and Television School)
“The Singers” (Highway West Entertainment)
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (The New Yorker) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
